Why Tier One Chinese Solar will Survive and Thrive $STP $YGE $TSL
In terms of where we go from here, it’s seems worth repeating our previous analysis pointing to a healthy rebalancing in the sector as a whole:
- On the demand side, the rest of the world has been making up for slack demand out of Europe. In particular, the latest data points to blistering demand in the US – more detail here
- Likewise, China and Asia are showing extremely strong demand growth – see our article on the issue here
- And most importantly, on the supply side, the major Chinese players have drawn a halt to their excessively aggressive capacity expansion plans – more detail here.
Finally, survey-based data from SolarBuzz also points to an ongoing consolidation in the industry. You can read a fuller discussion of this data here. In summary, the SolarBuzz survey conducted in Q2 of the current year, pointed to manufacturers’ shipping plans of just over 8 GW of modules in Q3 of this year and almost 9 GW in Q4. The somewhat obvious result was oversupply, a continued inventory build and falling module prices.
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