TrendForce: Price of Solar Cells to Drop 8-12 Cents in Q4
PC's Solar Photovoltaics Blog
Affected by the forecasted declining market demand in the firsthalf of 2011 and the current severe cold weather in Europe, TrendForce,the research institute, indicates that the price of solar cells in thefourth quarter of 2010 may decrease by 8-12 percent to $1.21/perWatt?$1.26/per Watt.
According to TrendForce’s survey, theaverage price quote of solar cells in September slightly declined by$0.01. However, the average price quote still remained at $1.43/per Watt in the third quarter of 2010. Besides, the capacity utilization ratehas maintained at high level. It is forecasted that the profitabilitylevel may remain high.
As for the outlook of solar cells in thefourth quarter of 2010, since the demand from the German market hasstarted declining, the spot price in 1HOct arrived at $1.38/per Watt -$1.4/per Watt, declining by $0.02-0.04 MoM.
In terms of theprice quotation of December in 2010, the bid price from solar modulemanufacturers dropped to around $1.3/per Watt, reducing by 6-7 percentcompared to the current bid price. It is showed that modulemanufacturers took a conservative attitude towards the demand in thefirst half of 2011, which met TrendForce’s early forecast on theworldwide solar market demand in 2011.
Source?TrendForce, October 2010.
In terms of the demand and supply of solar cells in the latter half of2010, the demand still remained strong. However, the dates of shipmentswere mostly scheduled before the end of November, which caused thedeclining price in the fourth quarter in 2010.
On the otherhand, according to the latest weather forecast, influenced by anti-ENSOevents, the severely cold weather in the European areas may occur. It is estimated that the opportunity of rush orders is low in Europe inDecember, and that is unfavorable for prices to increase.
TrendForce indicates that the price fluctuation of solar cells only limited to the transactions between solar cell manufacturers and module manufacturersat this stage.
Hence, the price of wafers still remains thesame, which is not affected by the declining transaction price for thedownstream clients. If the pressure from the decreasing solar cell price continues to increase, the solar cell manufacturers are forced toreduce the prices of wafers and Poly-Si to reflect costs.
