In response to my piece on society’s migration to EVs, Dan Conine writes:
There needs to be a build-down of the sprawlsimultaneously with the build-out of charging stations. Once they meet,the fringe will still have gas and the majority will be electric.
There are so many interesting scenarios here. Of course there aresupply issues, i.e., Peak Oil. But one wonders what will happen if –barring some huge natural or man-made calamity – we see a steady erosion in the demand for oil. What will the oil companies do once demand forgasoline drops below a certain point? In an EV world, no decrease in the price of gasoline will cause an increase in purchase volume. No one can expect them (and gas station owners) to stand around for decades astheir sale volume goes slowly to zero.
Yes, we need to keep in mind that transportation is not the onlydriver of oil consumption; approximately 10 calories of fossil fuels are required to produce every one calorie of food eaten in the US – andmost of this is in pesticides and agri-chemicals. Of course, anyone whocares about sustainability would sure like to see this go away too.
If you Google this subject, you find thousands of pages of reports,analysis, and opinion. From where I sit, petrodollars form theunderpinnings of our civilization. I’m sad to say that I think they’llfind a way to keep themselves relevant. Everything we see around us isproof of this.