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| LUX Research: Solar supply to overshoot demand by twofold in 2009 (GW). | Â |
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The independent research and consulting company, Lux Research Inc. (Boston, Massachusetts) expects the solar market to be at the leading edge of a massive correction. The latest report by Lux Research, entitled "Finding the Solar Market's Nadir", projects that the available capacity of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells and modules will measure twice the demand in 2009, while the overall market could shrink from last year's 36 billion US-Dollars (USD) and more than 5.5 gigawatts (GW) to 29 billion USD and 5.3 GW this year; the company announced in a press release. The report also addresses the question that suppliers, manufacturers and investors are asking now: Where and how soon can they expect the market to bottom out. Â "While oversupply in the solar market has been looming for some time, the correction has been more aggressive due to the economic crisis", said the report's lead author Ted Sullivan, Senior Analyst at Lux Research. "In order to reduce inventories, suppliers will have slashed their cell and module prices by 25 percent or more. While this spells a shakeout in the near term, the price reductions will push solar closer to grid parity and prime the market for recovery and growth."
Solar cell and module oversupply to possibly cause numerous company closures
In preparing the current report, Lux Research announced that it had updated the market size and demand forecast made in its September 2008 report, and that it had matched the revised demand forecast with updated capacity projections from a variety of companies. These included raw materials suppliers, solar cell and module manufacturers, high-concentrating PV developers, thin-film silicon producers, cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film module manufacturers, copper indium (gallium) diselenide (CIGS/CIS) developers and solar thermal providers. One of the key findings of the report is that Lux Research expects cell and module capacity to overshoot demand by twofold in 2009 to reach 10.4 GW, precipitating a shakeout that will eliminate all but the top players. In addition to that, Lux Research expects that the availability of silicon will become increasingly irrelevant, as module players will seek to cut their inventories. However, the resulting price reductions are expected to flatten out by 2011, bringing solar closer to grid parity and enabling the market to grow up to 70 billion USD and across 18.5 GW in 2013, according to the projections.
Solar thin-film technologies likely to grow aggressively - U.S. market heavily depending on the government stimulus package
Lux Research reports that crystalline silicon will continue to dominate the market in 2009, due to this technology's relatively easy financial feasibility. However, it is expected that competing thin-film technologies, including amorphous silicon and CdTe, will continue to grow aggressively. The CIGS-technology may also gain overall, despite expectations of widespread company failures. As the Spanish market dwindles, Lux Research expects Germany to become Europe's buyer of last resort. The U.S. market growth, meanwhile, will depend heavily on the government stimulus package just signed. "Last year, we successfully predicted that an oversupply of solar modules and dwindling project financing would lead to a shakeout," said Sullivan. "Now we're projecting that in coming years the decrease in solar module prices will begin to taper off and that demand will pick back up, setting the stage for even broader adoption." The latest market study is part of Lux Research's "Solar Intelligence Service" which provides clients with continuous research on solar industry market trends and forecasts, ongoing technology scouting reports and on-demand information from Lux Research analysts.
