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Rapid changes in the solar power sector are fueling a green energy
revolution. With so much emphasis on solving the global warming puzzle,
technology in solar is advancing very quickly and may be the answer
we've been looking for. Let's take a look at how this industry is
changing so quickly.
1. Solar Panel Prices Are Coming Down - And Fast
The
biggest detractor for solar in the past has been simple: it was just
too expensive to be practical. Coal generated power was as much as 90%
cheaper than solar power. But with the massive investment in production
capacity, coupled with the global economic slowdown, prices on solar
panels have come down anywhere from 10%-30% in the last 6 months. This
means that many projects that were borderline before are now feasible.
And the trend appears to be gaining steam. Prices on Sharp solar panels,
for instance, have been lowered 3 times since May, bringing their cost
into the $4/watt range. Just last year they were closer to $5/watt.
2. Solar Film Will Drive Prices Even Lower
Companies such as FirstSolar, Nanosolar, and Sharp are quickly bringing solar film,
also called thin-film solar, to market. We've been promised this
amazing technology for years and it seems its finally here. Thin film
is manufactured in a way that is similar to printing, and the product
often comes in a roll. This is a much more efficient way of producing
cells than the traditional solar panel, which was made in a process
similar to microchips. We are seeing initial pricing on this new
technology in the $1 to $2/watt range.
3. Efficiency is Getting Better
Solar
efficiency is the measure of power produced versus the sun's energy
that hits the panel. In the past any efficiency over 15% was seen as
good, and approaching 20% was great. Now such panels as SunPower's are
regularly achieving 22%. That means more bang for buck and more energy
produced for every square inch of panel installed.
4. Thin Film Efficiency is Better Too
Solar film is levelling the field on efficiency.
Thin film traditionally had efficiencies in the 10% area, roughly half
the efficiency of crystalline panels. While that measured quantity has
trended up slightly, industry professionals are finding that actual
production is higher. This is because the film produces better in
diffuse light and partially shaded conditions than panels. In one
project in Israel, installers recently found that the thin film solar
only required 25% more surface area compared to crystalline panels to
produce the same energy. This means that actual efficiency is probably
closer to 15% for film.
5. Utility Scale Solar is Blossoming
Utility
scale solar is PV power for the masses, brought to you through your
traditional power lines. Usually the power plants are located in
desert areas with ample sunshine. They often use a technology called
concentrated photovoltaics (CPV) that uses mirrors, tracking devices,
and advanced solar panel
technology to squeeze (almost) every drop of energy from sunlight. Due
to new federal rules on depreciation, generous tax credits, and
technological advances, utilities and investors can install these
systems profitably. In the next 5-10 years we will probably see the
record for largest CPV installation broken several times over.
Projects in Colorado, California, and Arizona are already under way and
will vie for the nation's largest when complete.
6. Power Is Getting More Expensive
While
this isn't necessarily good news, it's certainly overdue. Until we
wrap the true environmental cost of producing carbon into the cost of
electricity, our environmental picture will not improve. Whether we do
that through cap and trade, a carbon tax, or another way, it means that
power is going to cost more in the short term. This increased cost
will encourage energy efficiency and drive improvement in the
production, transportation, and storage of electricity. It will also
make solar power look more attractive.
7. Research Will Only Fuel the Revolution
Speaking
of innovation, research and development will change the industry in
ways we're not even aware of yet. Our wonderful university research
programs are driving tremendous
changes in the industry. Energy has become a focus of federal
and industry dollars, much the way telecommunications and information
technology was in the last decade. College programs now emphasize
energy efficiency in all aspects of design and engineering, and
integrating solar in buildings, vehicles, and even clothing have become
the norm. It seems like every week we hear about a breakthrough in
solar panels, thin film solar, and battery technology in our university research programs
8. Massive Investment Will Incubate the Next Energy Stars
One
sure sign of change to come is when Silicon Valley venture capital gets
involved. These funds are only interested in investing in sectors that
are rapidly growing and can make gobs of money in a short time. So
when you hear they are investing billions of dollars in photovoltaic
technology, and a new deal seems to be coming every week, you can bet
there are big things on the horizon. These prognosticators may not be
right all the time, but you can bet they don't throw their money away
at weak prospects. The same guys who made huge bets on Google, Yahoo,
and Netscape are now putting their chips on the energy sector, and
specifically solar power.
Kriss Bergethon is a writer and solar expert. He and his wife live off the grid in Colorado.
