Although they have a negligible market today, Lux Research projects they’ll grow to a $829 million market by 2020.
Dynamic windows – which can switch from a clear to a darkened state toprovide shading from the sun – are expected to grow to a $418 millionmarket by 2020.
Emerging insulation technologies like aerogels and phase-changematerials will find small but profitable niches, growing to $230 million and $130 million, respectively. Vacuum insulation panels will strugglewith usability and high costs, and reach just $50 million by 2020.
"Dynamic windows and advanced insulation have reached a level ofmaturity and scale that make them inviting alternatives, even for thenormally conservative and price-conscious construction industry," saysMurray McCutcheon, a Lux analyst and lead author of the report. "Dynamic windows, for instance, will gain footing now through public-sectorinstallations; this initial prove-out will create the volume to drivecosts down further and fuel adoption by the commercial sector past2016."
Europe will likely be fertile ground for these technologies because itemphasizes the thermal envelope in its building efficiency standards.
Europe already holds a 57% market share for dynamic window thanks tohigher energy prices and strict energy-efficiency regulations.
Lux analysts say growth will accelerate worldwide as dynamic windowsreach scale and costs drop – a process that is already underway. Costsare dropping for smart windows at about 5% a year – if they droppedtwice as fast, the market would grow to over $1.4 billion.
Michigan-based Pleotint recently started commercial productionon thermochromic windows – which darken in response to the heat ofdirect sunlight – in a two million square feet plant.
Sage and Soladigm are nearing completion of $100 million manufacturing plants slated to come online in 2012. They make electrochromic windows which tint inresponse to an electric current that can be controlled through smartbuilding management systems.
In November 2010, Sage announced a partnership with Saint-Gobain, one of the world’s largest glass and construction material manufacturers.
Lux Research is offering a complimentary webinar on the topic, scheduled for August 16 at 11:00 a.m. EDT or August 17 at 3:00 p.m. CEST.