There are numerous catalysts which should make 2010 a tremendous yearfor the PV industry consisting of lower prices, impending changes toFeed-in Tariffs (FiTs) and growth in subsidy efforts including:
- Germany- The new government is expected to announce in 1H’10 a lower FiT forat least ground mounted installations that would likely start in 2H’10,causing rapid Y/Y growth in 1H’10 installations before the FiT changestake effect. We are seeing a similar rush in 2H’09 before conventionalFiTs change in January 2010.
- Italy – the FiT is to be loweredonce cumulative installations reach 1.2GWs which could happen in 1H’10resulting in lower FiTs from 2011 and rapid demand growth in 2H’10.
- France – Expected to increase their FiT for BIPV and ground mounted PV by more than 7% in 2010.
- China- the regulatory and approval processes are expected to be in place toimplement their rooftop, power plant and FiT programs resulting inrapid growth.
- Canada – will benefit from the attractive Ontario FiT program which began to implemented in December.
- Japan– FiTs are expected to be introduced although recent adoption ofsubsidies for residential and non-residential PV has already led tosignificant growth.
- South Korea – 32% increase in their market cap to 132MWs should lead to a strong year.
- USA- DOE loan guarantees, the continuation of the federal ITC, growingavailability of federal land and buildings, state carve-outs and staterenewable portfolio standards and other state mandates are expected tolead to rapid growth.
- Lower prices – The oversupply inpolysilicon may not improve as most suppliers continue to boostcapacity likely resulting in lower polysilicon prices and additionalcost and price reduction opportunities for c-Si suppliers which shouldcontinue to result in pricing pressure on thin film suppliers.
Thestrong results in Q3’09 and bright Q4’09 outlook will result in a flat2009 market in terms of PV installations as shown in Figure 1 after adisastrous 1H’09. Looking forward to 2010, we expect installations torise 51% to over 8.6 GWs. PV market forecasting requires scenarios dueto the impact of changes to FiT and subsidy efforts on demand and weare showing that the market could more than double to nearly 11GWs in2010 if governments act favorably to PV. In the mid-case in 2010, weexpect power plants and large commercial installations to fuel thegrowth, rising 108% and 75% respectively, as credit becomes looser asshown in Figure 2. Small commercial will remain the leading applicationin 2010 due to its strong position in the German market, but by 2011,the power plant market will be the single largest application for PVdriven by lower prices and rising demand in China and the US. We arealso showing 23 different countries with over 50% growth in 2010 withthe PV market becoming less dependent on a single market which isessential for its long term health. IMS Research tracks and forecaststhe PV market by application for over 50 different individual countries.
IMSResearch now covers the entire PV supply chain through a series ofweekly, monthly, quarterly and annual reports on the equipment,polysilicon, wafer, cell, module, inverter and system integratormarkets. For more information, please visit http://www.imsresearch.com/.
Figure 1: PV Installation Forecast (Source: IMS Research’s PV Cells & Modules – World 2009 and PV Weekly Supply Chain Health Report)
Figure 2: PV Installation Forecast by Application (Source: IMS Research’s PV Cells & Modules – World 2009 and PV Weekly Supply Chain Health Report)