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investment in solar power is still going strong, despite a dismal 2009
and an only slightly more heartening first quarter of 2010.
But
the sub-sector of thin-film solar is a different story. In 2007 and
2008, almost every energy and greentech investor invested in a
thin-film firm. In fact, they did so in a big way -- with $100 million
plus funding rounds going to Nanosolar, HelioVolt, AVA Solar, MiaSole,
Sulfurcell, SoloPower, etc.
Here's a quick (non-exhaustive) list of thin-film PV firms funded by VCs over the last few years.
All told, more than $2.5 billion went into thin-film solar over the last few years.
However,
investment activity slowed down considerably in 2009 and early 2010.
Here are the thin-film solar firms that were funded in 2009:
What does this mean if you're a thin-film PV entrepreneur in
2010? For one, it means the days of $300 million factory-building
funding rounds are pretty much over. Two, you're going to have to come
up with a new way of doing business. One startup that gets this
message is AQT, a CIGS developer that has made enormous technical
progress on a shoestring budget with a business plan that doesn't
require half a billion dollars to get to market. We've written about
them here.
A few of the things that AQT has chosen to do differently are:
- Focusing on building solar cells, not manufacturing equipment
- Using pre-existing high-volume manufacturing equipment
- Starting with CIS2 (Copper Indium Sulfide), a relatively less complex materials system before they tackle CIGS
- Ramping up in 15-megawatt to 20-megawatt modular increments, not biting off 50MW-100MW chunks like other CIGS players
Call it CIGS or Thin Film 2.0.
On the other hand, the
companies that ramped-up and staffed-up hard in 2008 have bloated
headcounts and a rapidly contracting runway on which to get to market.
Their burn rates are either going to get them to commercialization --
or consume them.
