Wellingborough, UK – 1st October 2010 – IMS Research’s recently updated PV Demand Database has corroborated results released yesterday by The Bundesnetzagentur showing that registered installations in Germany in the first eight months of 2010 reached 4.8 GW, some 327% higher than the same period in 2009.
IMS Research, which last month predicted global installations in 2010 would exceed 16 GW estimates that Germany accounted for 48% of global demand in the first three quarters of 2010 – up from 40% for the same period in 2009, driven by the intense speculation and debate over the country’s FIT reductions and the subsequent three-step cuts in 2010. Small commercial systems up to 100kW in size have led demand and accounted for more than 2.6 GW, 280% higher than the same period in 2009. Residential installations are estimated to have grown year-on-year by 140% and large commercial systems by almost 500%.
PV Research Director, Ash Sharma commented “Germany added more than 3 GW of new PV capacity in the second quarter alone, which is a tremendous result given it added “only” 3.8 GW in the whole of 2009. High demand has been seen from almost every part of the German market and these results up to August solidify our prediction that the German market could reach up to 8 GW in 2010, and the global market more than 16 GW.”
But whilst 2010 will undoubtedly produce a huge German market, uncertainty still looms over 2011: “A large FIT cut is inevitable in Germany in 2012, which will likely drive big demand for PV systems in 2011. However, with only a single cut currently planned at the end of 2011, it is likely the market will cool considerably in Q1 2011. With production capacity being massively ramped up, it is very possible that this overcapacity will lead to big falls in prices through the supply chain. This could delay buying, and result in market revenues and margins indeed falling next year” Sharma added.
IMS Research provides regular reports and market intelligence for the solar industry, if you would like an interview with an expert in this area, please contact Ash Sharma, Research Director, PV Research Group, at Ash.Sharma@IMSResearch.com or +44 1933 402255.
About IMS Research
IMS Research is a supplier of market research and consultancy services on a wide range of global electronics markets. The company is supported by headquarters in Wellingborough, UK and offices in Austin, Texas and Shanghai, China. IMS Research regularly publishes detailed research on the PV inverter market and other areas of the PV industry, among others. http://www.pvmarketresearch.com.