Category Archives: 3000 Quads
3000 Quads is about energy for the 21st century. The world’s population is now estimated to peak at between 9 and 10 billion people somewhere around 2075. If they use energy at the same rate as the average American, they will consume 3,000 quadrillion btus.
That isn’t written in stone–the Danes use half as much energy per person as Americans and they have a pretty good life. The developing world could aim for a Danish lifestyle instead of Yankee over-exuberance. But if it comes to pass, then we face a dilemma. If most of that energy is provided by burning coal, we face something close to disaster.
My name is Tom Fuller. I work at a solar power company called Sungevity, a premiere provider of solar power to homeowners in the United States.
The Suntech Bankruptcy and the Future of Solar
The bankruptcy of Suntech Power Holdings, one of China’s (and hence the world’s) largest solar panel manufacturers, might seem like bad news for the solar industry. It’s not. It’s just bad news for Suntech shareholders. Suntech made a huge mistake, purchasing an 80% stake in Global Solar Fund in 2008. Turns out that was not [...]
China: Consuming Just As Much Coal As Rest of World Combined
It’s not always that I agree with Time. But this time I do, even if they’re a bit late to the party. “As the data shows, China is now burning almost as much coal as the rest of the world—combined. And despite impressive support from Beijing for renewable energy and a dawning understanding about the dangers of [...]
DOE’s International Energy Outlook: Wrong on Developing World
Regular readers will remember that I predicted that China would be using 247 quads by 2030, far more than the Department of Energy’s forecast of 163 quads. Is it possible they will be using even more than my pessimistic prediction? “Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics show the total energy consumed in China in [...]
Energy Growth and Consumption: 2013 and Beyond
Energy growth in 2013 will be tightly coupled to economic growth and that will remain true for at least a decade. Supply fades as a factor while getting the correct fuel portfolio balance will be a key to quality of life worldwide for the foreseeable future. We have once again returned to a world where [...]
The Data Monoculture
For almost a year I have been trying to alert readers to the strong possibility that organizations charged with estimating future energy usage are consistently underestimating totals. I think the source of their error lies in miscalculating the take-up of energy in the developing world, compounded by their ignoring current latent demand and, perhaps most [...]
DOE Publishes Early Release of 2013 U.S. Energy Outlook
The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration has published their Early Release of the U.S. Annual Energy Outlook for 2013. Some key points: Domestic production of crude oil is increasing and is expected to continue to increase, reaching 7.5 million barrels per day by 2019 Our consumption of natural gas is also expected to increase, [...]
Combining Data to Figure out Climate Change
I apologize once again for the usual reasons. First, for the length of time since last I posted–we’ve moved and that was more disruptive this time than the 44 other moves I’ve made as an adult. Second, for returning to direct discussion of climate change, something that is closely connected to energy consumption but so [...]
Climate Change and Energy Consumption: Major Themes of Obama’s Second Term
Congratulations, Mr. President. Now let’s get to work. Because you mentioned climate change one time in your acceptance speech, the writers and readers for whom that subject is of paramount importance (on either side) have let 1,000 flowers bloom in less than a day. Andrew Revkin did the best job of it, talking through many [...]
Can India Meet It’s Lofty Coal Goals?
I have written before that India has lots of coal–and they do. I have also written that they have had a heckuva time getting it out of the ground–and they have. Corruption, lethargy, too much regulation… all have conspired to keep much of the population in India as energy starved as they are malnourished. As [...]